Shanghai aluminum shock uplink driven by spot sentiment [institutional review]

Last night, it opened high and left low, and the daily trading was driven by spot sentiment and fluctuated upwards. Following the suspension of production at Rusal's Ukrainian alumina plant, Rio Tinto sought to stop cooperation with Rusal's alumina plant in Northern Ireland and stop purchasing and underwriting bauxite and alumina. Deripaska, the actual controller of Britain's announcement of sanctions against Rusal, led to sanctions against Rusal in 2018 when the US Treasury announced sanctions against Deripaska, but at present, the impact of British sanctions is relatively small. under the background that the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine are not going smoothly, it also aggravates the concerns of the market to a certain extent, so under the stimulation of the news, the outer disk of Shanghai Aluminum rose sharply during the suspension period.

On the demand side, after the recent price drop, terminal enterprises are very enthusiastic in purchasing, and active in replenishing inventory at low prices, which can be verified by both inventory and discount. Yesterday, social inventory was announced. Aluminum ingot inventory dropped by 12000 tons, aluminum bar inventory decreased by 18000 tons, and overall inventory began to be removed. The discount in Gongyi area has been repaired from the previous-300 to around 0, but has recently dropped to about-50. Wuxi area for the month to repair to the vicinity of-30, downstream procurement is active; From the point of view of the repair of inventory and rising water, the current demand has recovered very well after the price fall, the fundamentals have entered a healthy stage of development, and the demand suppressed by high prices has also begun to repair and replenish the stock. On the supply side, recently, there has been no reduction in production of overseas Russian aluminum, including electrolytic aluminum in Europe, and the supply has remained stable, and the logic of bullish hype is almost untenable or there is a solution. The southwest region of China is actively resuming production, and the current operating capacity is about 38.8 million tons. According to the production plan, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum will reach 40 million tons when the peak consumption season comes in April, so the domestic supply of aluminum ingots is basically stable in the later period.

At present, the demand repair is relatively good, the supply side is also repairing quickly, and overseas energy prices have fallen recently, so the market tends to be rational, unilateral: when the price goes up again to more than 2.2W, the overall performance of demand is OK. In addition, we need to pay attention to the inventory situation. If the inventory continues to degrade, it means that the current demand exceeds the supply growth rate, and we can still make use of the acceptance and gap on the demand side to do more bargain. But at present, when the impact of the event is still there, the short-term operation is the main one.

Arbitrage: although the internal and external ratio has been repaired to a certain extent, the internal and external ratio is still large, so it is recommended to lock in the export profit of the distant moon in advance.